Four-year study: experts consistently and dramatically underestimate AI progress
austinc3301 · x · 2026-09-24
ResearchFRI shares interim findings from the most comprehensive series of expert AI forecast studies run over the last four years:
- Experts — including top economists, computer scientists, and biologists — have dramatically underestimated AI capabilities progress each year; superforecasters underestimated even more.
- On AI diffusion measures, the record is mixed: major underestimates on AI revenue, while forecasts like AI's share of electricity use are on track.
- Some notable overestimation cases also exist.
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