Superforecasters Gave AI a 1.7% Chance of Solving a Millennium Problem — Badly Wrong
BorisMPower · x · 2026-09-24
Ethan Mollick notes that in September 2025, top superforecasters put the odds of AI solving a Millennium Prize Problem by September 2026 at just 1.7% (industry experts: 4.6%), and also badly underestimated AI lab revenue. Boris Power argues the failure mode is over-reliance on analogies and base rates without properly accounting for correlations and multiplicative effects.
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