Epoch AI reviews the case for and against explosive 10x economic growth from AI

Jsevillamol · x · 2026-09-24

Epoch AI researcher Jsevillamol points to the team's paper "Explosive growth from AI" (Erdil & Besiroglu, 2023), which reviews arguments for whether advanced AI could push growth to 10x today's frontier-economy rates: standard growth theory predicts explosive growth by default when AI substitutes for most labor, while regulation, the difficulty of building capable AI, and input constraints could each throttle it. The paper assesses how extreme each bottleneck's parameters must be, without giving point estimates.

Related event: Epoch AI Researcher: AI Could Deliver Industrial-Revolution-Scale Growth(2 posts)→

Original post →

More from AGI Musings

AGI Musings channel →