Four Years of Expert AI Forecast Studies: Economists and Scientists Keep Underestimating Progress
michael_nielsen · x · 2026-09-24
The Forecast Research Institute has released an interim update on its four-year series of studies on expert AI forecasts:
- Systematic underestimation: Top economists, computer scientists, and biologists have dramatically underestimated AI capabilities progress every year; superforecasters underestimated it to an even greater extent.
- Mixed record on diffusion metrics: Major underestimates on measures like AI revenue, while forecasts such as the share of electricity used for AI remain on track.
- Michael Nielsen amplified the finding, quoting: experts have dramatically underestimated AI capabilities progress each year.
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