Economist challenges Epoch's cost-decline curve: conflating capability gains with cost reduction
davidroodman · x · 2026-09-23
经济学家 David Roodman 与 Toby Ord 在 X 上公开讨论 Epoch AI 的成本趋势研究。Roodman 此前指出图中存在的问题:该研究把能力的快速提升与成本下降合并在一起,试图得出纯成本维度的结论,但这在方法上不可行,因此标题结论可能不成立。
在澄清中他说明:研究发现的凸性(convexity)是「固定性能水平的价格相对其成为 SOTA 后时间」的关系,而非相对 GPT-3 发布时间,两者可能一个近似线性、一个凸。Ord 则回应称此前 18 个月内 GPQA diamond 成本下降 725 倍的数据虽然扎实,但未必有代表性。
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