Polymarket puts only 19% odds on OpenAI declaring AGI before 2027 despite GPT-6 Astra
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-23
Polymarket's market on whether OpenAI announces AGI before 2027 trades at just 19% Yes, with $272,904 in volume.
Traders shrugged off the September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra and president Greg Brockman's remark that it may mark entry into the "AGI era": OpenAI stopped short of a declaration matching its charter definition (outperforming humans at most economically valuable work). The model scored 62.7% on the standard ARC-AGI-3 harness versus OpenAI's provider-specific 99.9%, and CEO Sam Altman recently dismissed the term as "poorly defined" and "irrelevant marketing."
With three months left, the market implies an 81.5% chance of No.
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