Researcher predicts RSA-2048 breakable within a decade via AI-accelerated quantum computing
Jsevillamol · x · 2026-09-23
Responding to pointed questions, researcher Jsevillamol lays out concrete AGI-era predictions:
- Lab nationalization: unlikely by 2030, but if it happens it would resemble Mexico's energy industry — the government buying or seizing 51% of shares. The profit threat would be forced slowdowns for public interest, not the technology itself being risky.
- Cancer: most common cancers not cured by 2030, but yes by 2040.
- Encryption: he claims awareness of a straightforward path to breaking RSA-2048 via AI-accelerated quantum computing, within reach next decade if AI takes off as he expects (vs 30 years without AI). AES has no equivalent path: the best current AES-256 attack takes 3e76 FLOP, and even a quadratic Grover speedup leaves 1e38 qflop required.
A rare instance of falsifiable, quantified AGI-timeline predictions.
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