Polymarket Puts 11% Odds on AI Bubble Bursting by End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-22
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" prediction market currently prices an industry downturn by December 31, 2026 at just 11% (10.8¢ Yes), with nearly $3M in volume; odds rise to 26% by June 30, 2027.
Resolution requires at least three of the following within a 90-day window: NVDA down 50% from all-time high, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, an OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental price at $1.00 or below for five consecutive days, or a 50% drawdown in TSMC/ASML/Broadcom/Arista/Super Micro shares.
The post also cites Tom Cruise warning Hollywood that AI is "coming and it's going to happen."
Related event: Polymarket Bets AI Bubble Unlikely to Burst This Year(3 posts)→
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