AI and the labor market: juniors are being squeezed from both jobs and skills
ziv_ravid · x · 2026-09-22
The author argues AI's labor-market problem concentrates on junior workers, hitting from two directions: their jobs and their skills.
Later posts in the thread cite the data: Stanford research shows employment for 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed occupations fell 13% relative to less-exposed ones since late 2022, with young software developers down nearly 20% from the 2022 peak. An NBER RCT (Autor et al., 133 patent lawyers) found juniors' output jumped with AI but gains vanished entirely once the tool was removed — zero durable improvement — while seniors kept their gains. The author's hypothesis: foundational expertise may be a prerequisite for converting AI-assisted practice into lasting skill.
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