Toby Ord: Agent Swarm Estimates Put Intelligence Explosion Parameter λ at 0.5-0.6
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-22
Toby Ord laments that empirical estimates of λ — the automation leverage parameter where explosion occurs if λ/β > 1 — aren't low enough to rule out an intelligence explosion. The AI Futures Model assumes λ=0.5 and Davidson & Houlden put it at 0.6; a new empirical estimate from agent swarms suggests both are roughly right. He urges tracking λ as new orchestration methods push it higher.
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