Agent swarm data suggests intelligence explosion parameter λ around 0.5-0.6, below threshold
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-22
Toby Ord points out that in intelligence explosion models things blow up when r = λ/β > 1, with higher λ making an explosion easier. The AI Futures Model for recursive self-improvement assumes λ = 0.5, while Davidson & Houlden put it at 0.6.
He notes that an empirical estimate derived from agent swarms suggests both assumptions are roughly right. λ is usually estimated from human groups, so measuring it directly with AI swarms is a valuable input for studying recursive self-improvement.
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