Survey systematically evaluates uncertainty quantification methods for safety-critical deep learning

burkov · x · 2026-09-21

Andriy Burkov shares a systematic survey on predictive uncertainty in deep learning.

Deep neural networks are increasingly deployed in mission- and safety-critical domains (medical diagnostics, autonomous driving, robotics, earth observation), yet standard models suffer from poor interpretability, vulnerability to data shifts, and miscalibrated, overconfident predictions. Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for automated systems to make safe decisions or escalate high-risk cases to humans.

The article dissects the main sources of predictive uncertainty, distinguishing reducible model uncertainty from irreducible data uncertainty, and evaluates four core methodological frameworks—single deterministic networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensembles, and more—on quantification and calibration.

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