Polymarket gives AI bubble burst just 12% odds with $3M bet on specific triggers
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-21
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" market has drawn nearly $3M in volume, with only a 12% implied probability of a burst by Dec 31, 2026. Resolution requires at least three triggers within 90 days: NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI/Anthropic bankruptcy, OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental price below $1 for five days, or a major supplier (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, SMCI) down 50%. A related note says the FAA will roll out an AI air-traffic-control tool starting Monday.
Related event: Polymarket bets AI bubble has only ~10% chance of bursting by 2026(3 posts)→
More from Venture
- AI assistant startup Town tops The Information's 50 Most Promising Startups at $892M valuation — soleio · 2026-11-12
- OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says OpenAI has 100 million subscribers — morqon · 2026-11-12
- Polymarket odds put Chinese AI lab at #1 by year-end at just 6% — Polymarket · 2026-11-12
- Rox raises $270M Series B at $1.3B valuation, 12 months after launch — Konstantine · 2026-11-12
- TSMC to invest $1B in OpenAI and Anthropic, fueling circular financing concerns — Ars Technica AI · 2026-11-12
- Memory stocks rebound as CoreWeave forecast signals demand: SanDisk +16.75% — fallingdowndizzyvr · 2026-11-12