Toby Ord: industrial tonnage doubling vs. dollar-value explosion are different questions
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-19
In the explosive-growth debate, Toby Ord distinguishes material output from dollar value: Damon Binder's work suggests industrial tonnage could double on a year timescale. Ord grants Timothy Lee's case that the dollar economy may not explode, but argues most people asking about explosive growth care about physical capacity — 1,024x industry in 10 years would matter regardless. He calls for identifying whether clear technical or economic obstacles exist. The quoted Lee post notes Davidson/Radshar's analysis barely addresses demand: models must factor in how consumer spending shifts as automated goods get cheaper.
Related event: Debating AI-Driven Industrial Explosion: Greenblatt vs. Timothy Lee(19 posts)→
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