Polymarket opens recursive self-improvement bets: OpenAI/Anthropic by 2026 trades at 17¢
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-19
Polymarket launched prediction markets on whether OpenAI or Anthropic will officially announce achieving recursive self-improvement by set dates.
- "Yes" trades at just 17¢ for before Oct 31, 2026, and 18¢ for before Dec 31, 2026 — the market heavily doubts a near-term announcement.
- Strict resolution rules: the company must officially declare its AI autonomously conducts the R&D needed to materially improve its frontier models or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system driving further improvements. Humans may only set high-level goals, provide resources, oversight, and approval.
- Toy, narrow, sandboxed, or PoC improvements limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores don't qualify; statements that AI merely "assists or accelerates" research also don't count.
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