Micron and the AI memory cycle: HBM heads to $100B by 2027, 5-year deals reshape the trade
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-09-19
I/O Fund argues this AI memory cycle is different: HBM grew from $4B in 2023 to $34.6B in 2025, with Micron projecting a $100B market by 2027, while SK Hynix and Micron stocks rose 400% and 500% in a year. Inference workloads and KV cache demand are pushing constraints beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, with new capacity not expected until 2028. But Micron's 5-year lock-in deals ease cyclicality concerns while capping its upside from the boom — leaving tight supply alongside decelerating reported growth.
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