Polymarket puts year-end AI bubble odds at 11% as Manus eyes $4B valuation
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-18
- Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" market shows 11% Yes odds, with nearly $3M in volume, resolving December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires at least three conditions within 90 days: NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, an OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental price at $1.00 or lower for five straight days, or TSMC/ASML/Broadcom/Arista/SMCI down 50% from ATH.
- The market gained attention after reports that Manus is in talks to raise $500M at roughly a $4B valuation while exploring a future Hong Kong IPO.
Related event: Manus in talks to raise $500M at $4B valuation(4 posts)→
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