Mantic raises $25M after its AI beat all 676 humans in Metaculus forecasting Cup
tshevl · x · 2026-09-18
Mantic, founded by Toby Shevlane and Ben Day, raised $25M to scale superhuman AI forecasting. This summer it became the first AI to beat all 676 human entrants (including professionals) in the Metaculus Cup, beating other AI startups and frontier models like GPT-6 and Kimi K3 on a standard harness — showing forecasting needs dedicated scaffolding and fine-tuning. It flagged Colombia's election favorite a week before the human crowd and beat it on Spider-Man box office predictions.
Related event: AI forecasting startup Mantic raises $25M after beating 676 humans(3 posts)→
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