Forecasting AI: Be Skeptical of Sharp Discontinuities Like AGI or Recursive Self-Improvement
binarybits · x · 2026-09-17
binarybits argues AI forecasters should be skeptical of sharp discontinuities. The idea of suddenly "achieving AGI" and everything changing overnight has grown fuzzy as we get closer — and he views recursive self-improvement the same way: likely gradual, not a sudden singularity.
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