Brad Gerstner: 43GW AI compute forecast too aggressive, sees ~25GW with half for OpenAI/Anthropic
firstadopter · x · 2026-09-17
Altimeter's Brad Gerstner shared his market view at All-In Summit 2026:
- Earnings growth is carrying the market while multiples fall; energy, tech and chips lead YTD, consumer and software lag
- Hyperscaler capex is flowing into semiconductor free cash flow
- He called Anthropic and OpenAI's monthly annualized revenue the single most important datapoint
- He thinks SemiAnalysis' 43GW forecast for next year is too aggressive; his estimate is 25GW, half of it for OpenAI/Anthropic
- A 5.5% 10-year yield would burden equity markets
- Advice: don't YOLO, don't run 4x leverage. He is medium positioned and will add if frontier lab ARR stays strong and oil prices fall, otherwise de-risk
More from Venture
- What 150k-follower Bilibili gaming creators charge: 8,500 yuan per video — ezshine · 2026-11-02
- Microsoft issues $25B bonds in $92.28B revenue week as OpenAI trims round by $10B — YvesMulkers · 2026-11-02
- Amazon's $215B capex exceeds $168B operating cash flow, FCF turns -$42B — thealexbanks · 2026-11-02
- A four-dimension framework for building GEO prompt libraries, backed by B2B survey data — yangyi · 2026-11-02
- Saudi Aramco takes 49% stake in AI firm Humain in $2.6 billion deal — The Decoder · 2026-11-02
- Stratechery: Google's earnings miss mirrors Facebook's—but its agent play is bolder than credited — Stratechery · 2026-11-02