Brad Gerstner: 43GW AI compute forecast too aggressive, sees ~25GW with half for OpenAI/Anthropic
firstadopter · x · 2026-09-17
Altimeter's Brad Gerstner shared his market view at All-In Summit 2026:
- Earnings growth is carrying the market while multiples fall; energy, tech and chips lead YTD, consumer and software lag
- Hyperscaler capex is flowing into semiconductor free cash flow
- He called Anthropic and OpenAI's monthly annualized revenue the single most important datapoint
- He thinks SemiAnalysis' 43GW forecast for next year is too aggressive; his estimate is 25GW, half of it for OpenAI/Anthropic
- A 5.5% 10-year yield would burden equity markets
- Advice: don't YOLO, don't run 4x leverage. He is medium positioned and will add if frontier lab ARR stays strong and oil prices fall, otherwise de-risk
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