Follow-up: sources for the claim that AI progress is outdating expert forecasts
kimmonismus · x · 2026-09-17
kimmonismus followed up his post about AI progress making expert forecasts obsolete with two source links, backing the cited December 2024 aggregate forecasts: 50% chance of AI solving a Millennium Prize problem around 2054, patching a security flaw in a 100,000+ user system in the early 2030s, and matching top Putnam competitors around 2030.
Related event: OpenAI's Navier-Stokes result beats expert forecasts by ~30 years(6 posts)→
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