December 2024 expert forecasts put AI solving a Millennium Prize problem at 2054 — already looking outdated
kimmonismus · x · 2026-09-17
kimmonismus highlights how fast AI progress is invalidating expert forecasts: as late as December 2024, aggregated forecasts from AI researchers gave a 50% chance of AI solving a Millennium Prize problem around 2054, finding and patching a security flaw in a system with over 100,000 users in the early 2030s, and matching top human Putnam competitors around 2030 — timelines that rapid recent progress is making look obsolete. Sources linked in a follow-up post.
Related event: OpenAI's Navier-Stokes result beats expert forecasts by ~30 years(6 posts)→
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