Polymarket puts only 16% odds on an AI bubble burst by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-16
Polymarket's 'AI bubble burst' market has drawn over $2.95M in volume, with only a 16% implied probability of a downturn by year-end.
The market has unusually concrete resolution criteria: it pays out 'Yes' if at least three of the following occur within 90 days — NVDA down 50% from all-time high, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 rental prices at $1.00 or below for five consecutive days (per the SiliconData Silicon Index), or TSMC/ASML/Broadcom/Arista/Supermicro down 50% from highs.
The post also references a new startup by a ChatGPT co-inventor claiming up to 200x faster inference with plans to permanently charge $0 for output tokens.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against AI Bubble Bursting Before End of 2026(8 posts)→
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