Polymarket prices just 8% chance US-China reach AI pacing deal by 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-16
Polymarket launched a new market: "Will the US and China announce an AI pacing agreement by December 31, 2026?" — currently priced at just 8%.
The context: Bernie Sanders publicly urged Trump to negotiate with China's Xi on a ban on AI superintelligence. Per the market's rules, both governments must officially confirm acceptance — via a joint statement, separate official statements taken together, or a multilateral agreement including both countries. One-sided statements or mere references to ongoing negotiations don't qualify. The deal must include at least one of: safety conditions on training/releasing/deploying models, caps on training compute, limits on recursive self-improvement, or otherwise pausing/slowing frontier model development.
More from Safety
- vAIvar: open-source honeypot feeds attacking AI agents endless hallucinations — Scobleizer · 2026-09-16
- Senator Schatz urges Congress onto emergency footing to cut AI risk next week — tszzl · 2026-09-16
- Ex-Anthropic researcher explains his public split: the race to RSI wasn't inevitable — Miles_Brundage · 2026-09-16
- Zuckerberg pushes back on AI slowdown calls: trust and alignment are becoming the key capabilities — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-16
- Katja Grace praised for May 2023 point that no one can win the AI arms race — NathanpmYoung · 2026-09-16
- Rep. Trahan: AI loss-of-control disclosures run on an 'honor system' — mandatory incident reporting needed — Miles_Brundage · 2026-09-16