Polymarket gives just 21% odds OpenAI declares AGI by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's market on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027" has drawn about $251K in volume, with an implied probability of only 21% — most bettors expect no formal AGI announcement before 2027.
Context: President Greg Brockman said the GPT-6 Astra launch (Sept 3) could mark the start of an "AGI era," and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said AGI is already here. CEO Sam Altman remains measured: in August he said an internal system he'd call AGI is expected by year-end but not yet achieved, stressing safety techniques should pace capability advances. Independent benchmarks on agentic workflows and ARC-AGI show strong but uneven performance, short of OpenAI's charter definition of systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work.
Related event: Polymarket Prices 20% Odds OpenAI Declares AGI by Year-End(2 posts)→
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