Polymarket gives just 21% odds OpenAI declares AGI by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's market on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027" has drawn about $251K in volume, with an implied probability of only 21% — most bettors expect no formal AGI announcement before 2027.
Context: President Greg Brockman said the GPT-6 Astra launch (Sept 3) could mark the start of an "AGI era," and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said AGI is already here. CEO Sam Altman remains measured: in August he said an internal system he'd call AGI is expected by year-end but not yet achieved, stressing safety techniques should pace capability advances. Independent benchmarks on agentic workflows and ARC-AGI show strong but uneven performance, short of OpenAI's charter definition of systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work.
More from AGI Musings
- 13,000-Word Essay Argues Rogue AI Incidents Are Security and Organizational Failures — sayashk · 2026-09-15
- Gary Marcus in The Economist: US-China AI collaboration could yield medical, cyber gains — GaryMarcus · 2026-09-15
- Microsoft researchers may threaten to quit over model welfare language, predicts artist — sterlingcrispin · 2026-09-15
- TIME cover ignites debate as OpenAI and Anthropic researchers warn of AI risks — AIandDesign · 2026-09-15
- Code is cheap now — what's scarce is originality and true mental grasp — sqcai · 2026-09-15
- Researcher rebuts 'models know we're studying them' claim: they're passive computation — vishalmisra · 2026-09-15