Twitter user shows how to arb a $25k Millennium Prize bet with Polymarket for risk-free $15k
cloneofsimo · x · 2026-09-15
Mathematician Elliot Glazer offered a $25,000 even-odds wager that none of the five remaining Millennium Prize Problems (e.g. Hodge, BSD) will be solved this month, challenging self-proclaimed insiders.
User cloneofsomo pointed out that anyone taking the bet could hedge it risk-free: buy $50k of the Polymarket "Yes" at p=$0.19. If a problem is solved, the wager loses $25k but the market pays 50k×(1−p); if not, the wager wins $25k while the market loses 50k×p. Either way the net profit is 25k×(1−2p)≈$15,000.
More from Fun
- Viral jab: running 6 agents to build 'bigger than Chrome' while ignoring users — AlchainHust · 2026-09-15
- Fable ignores its provided edit tool and just slops its own instead — mitsuhiko · 2026-09-15
- Counting 1 to 10 Takes Only 9 Seconds: The Fence-Post Mistake Everyone Makes — alexisgallagher · 2026-09-15
- Spotting an ad hidden inside a popular agent design skill — jonathan_wilke · 2026-09-15
- Singapore OpenAI Astra hackathon: SpiritAtlas builds a pourable, stirrable 3D cocktail — gabrielchua · 2026-09-15
- Thorsten Ball jokes: if Anthropic's Slack leaked, everyone would talk like Claude — RichmanRonald · 2026-09-15