Scaling plateau is 3-4 OOMs away, and at 10x/year superintelligence lands by 2030
willcb · x · 2026-09-15
Responding to fears that scaling follows a sigmoid and will plateau, the author argues the plateau sits 3-4 orders of magnitude away, while capability is still compounding at roughly 10x per year — making superintelligence by 2030 "easily" achievable in his view.
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