Reddit users push for a p(despair): collapse risk may dwarf p(doom) estimates
LongIslandSmedium · reddit · 2026-09-15
A Reddit post argues the AI safety community should track a "p(despair)" alongside p(doom): the probability of civilizational collapse, mass unemployment, or falling living standards — outcomes short of extinction.
The core argument: for every scenario where AI destroys everyone, there may be ten where it "gets some of us and feels indifferent about the stragglers." So when an Anthropic researcher says their p(doom) is 10%, does that imply a p(despair) above 50%? The author calls this an important question researchers ought to answer publicly.
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