Analysis: Anthropic pacing alone buys one month; coordinated US slowdown cuts risk to 21%
soleio · x · 2026-09-15
A quantitative take on frontier model pacing economics:
- Anthropic pacing alone: buys the world barely a month, cuts catastrophe risk from 41% to 31%, and costs about $144B in present value as rivals take its market share.
- US labs pacing together under regulation: buys roughly six months, cuts risk to 21%, avoids $255B of expected damage, and costs Anthropic less ($105B) since nobody captures its market share.
The linked cfo.ai analysis compares frontier pacing, US coordination, export controls and global agreements across safety readiness, time bought, and Anthropic's revenue/cash trade-offs. Key takeaway: coordinated slowdowns are both safer and cheaper than unilateral sacrifice.
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