Greg Brockman: "we're now in the AGI era," tracing compute math he did with Ilya in 2016
garrytan · x · 2026-09-15
OpenAI President Greg Brockman declared "we're now in the AGI era" on an a16z podcast. Around 2016/2017, he and Ilya Sutskever extrapolated compute trends: AGI in 15 years by Moore's law, or 10 if someone built massive supercomputers and spent hundreds of billions. He says that accelerated scenario is roughly what's unfolding now, driven by long-running forces—especially the decision to build enormous infrastructure—converging: "it kind of makes sense it's happening now."
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