Polymarket puts Microsoft's odds of a top AI model by year-end at just 5%; Google leads at 37%
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-14
Polymarket has opened a market on which company will have the #1 AI model by December 31, 2026, with $150K in volume. Current odds: Google 37%, OpenAI 28%, xAI 13%, Z.ai and Meta 11% each, Moonshot 9%, ByteDance 8%, Alibaba 8%, Baidu 7%, DeepSeek 6%, Microsoft just 5%, Amazon 3.3%, Mistral 2.9%, Meituan 2.6%. The same thread notes Microsoft unveiled new limits for future AI models, including bans on autonomous goal setting, concealed reasoning, and assistance with weapons or dangerous substances — markets clearly doubt Microsoft's in-house model competitiveness.
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