AI capex cycle hinges on next-gen models driving more token spend, argues analyst
menhguin · x · 2026-09-14
A framework for judging the AI capex cycle: it all depends on whether next-gen "Fable-tier" models unlock exponentially more token spend.
- Open-source models are "good enough" for most day-to-day work, so closed models must be a step-function better AND convert into more usage.
- Test: if frontier models one-shot Millennium Problems and revenue still doesn't rise, the AI cycle is genuinely over — unlike the Opus 4.5 threshold last year, compute alone would no longer buy revenue growth.
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