Rob LeClerc: quoting p(doom) without conditional probabilities reveals shallow thinking
robleclerc · x · 2026-09-14
Rob LeClerc, former Anthropic CEO, criticized how AI doom arguments are typically made: people assign a high p(doom) to human extinction without offering conditional probabilities, p(doom | y).
In his view, the absence of conditionality — under what circumstances doom becomes likely — exposes the shallowness and lack of rigor in such reasoning. The post sparked discussion on how AI risk debates should be framed probabilistically.
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