Betting on the slowdown: ~20% odds ASI is delayed by 3+ months
EigenGender · x · 2026-09-13
EigenGender still thinks a nontrivial AI slowdown is fairly unlikely despite the past week's turmoil: he puts 20% odds on a slowdown delaying ASI progress by at least 3 months, and <<5% on a delay of at least 2 years. A typical Bayesian-style wager on frontier progress pacing.
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