Gordic Aleksa Dissects Kokotajlo's 'AI 2040' Plan A: A Chain of Low-Probability Assumptions
gordic_aleksa · x · 2026-09-13
- Kokotajlo et al. (AI 2027 team) released "AI 2040: Plan A," proposing delaying superintelligence to 2040 via US-China compute declaration and inspection (<1% hidden compute), inference-only verification hardware, total research transparency, and "mutually assured compute destruction" (US datacenters in Mongolia, Chinese in Canada).
- Gordic Aleksa's critique: it's a chain of low-probability events — no historical precedent for such US-China coordination; Mongolia/Canada hosting destructible strategic datacenters is unrealistic; the plan ignores the economic shock given massive committed capex.
- He also pushes back on the timeline's "mode collapse" narrative that only offers job loss, permanent hegemony, or extinction as outcomes.
Related event: AI 2027 team's AI 2040 'Plan A' slowdown proposal sparks fierce debate(13 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Walden Robotics CTO: general-purpose robot manipulation is having its 'GPT moment' — adnothing · 2026-10-30
- AI isn't eliminating developers, it's changing their roles, argues analyst — DavidLinthicum · 2026-10-30
- Goldman Sachs says AI will eliminate nearly 15 million jobs — saibharadwaj · 2026-10-30
- ChatGPT Is Turning Users Into Spammers, Says 404 Media Reporter — 404 Media · 2026-10-30
- Stripe spends 1% of OpEx on tokens — bull case for digital labor — zephyr_z9 · 2026-10-30
- Amazon blocks shopping agents, but these 11 retailers still welcome them — thisiskp_ · 2026-10-30