Polymarket puts 11% odds on an AI bubble burst by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-13
Polymarket's 'AI bubble burst' prediction market currently prices roughly 11% odds (Yes at 11.1¢) that the AI industry experiences a downturn before December 31, 2026, with nearly $3M in volume.
Resolution requires at least three of the following within 90 days: NVDA closing down 50% from its all-time high; the SOXX semiconductor ETF down 40%; OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy; OpenAI being acquired; H100 rental prices at or below $1.00 for five consecutive days (SiliconData Silicon Index); or TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, or Supermicro closing down 50% from highs.
Related event: Polymarket Prices AI Bubble Burst Odds at Just 12% Before End of 2026(3 posts)→
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