AI Doom Debate Flares: Five Extinction Scenarios Listed and Sharply Rebutted
Scobleizer · x · 2026-09-12
The AI doom debate escalates. After Jacob Coxon's resignation and extinction warnings, @ohabryka pushes back on claims that AI safety researchers have no realistic extinction path, cataloging five leading scenarios:
- AI 2027 (Daniel Kokotajlo et al.; detailed appendices, strongly recommended)
- Paul Christiano's scenario (former AISI head of safety, 2019)
- Gwern Branwen's scenario (2022)
- Holden Karnofsky's high-level explanation (Anthropic RSP lead, 2022)
- Joshua Clymer's scenario
Rob LeClerc requote-shares with a rebuttal: the scenarios assume "TOTAL and intentional stupidity"—humans abandoning agency and self-defense while all AI unilaterally turns hostile and can't be used defensively—as realistic as spontaneous combustion, achievable only via the centralized state control doomers allegedly want. The exchange captures the sharpest poles of the AI risk debate.
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