AI progress betting pool swells to $575k with DeepMind researchers on both sides
sebkrier · x · 2026-09-12
- The total pot for the AI progress bet has grown to $575,000, with new joiners including Robin Hanson, phl43, Sasha Kaletsky, and Gabriel Unger.
- Jan Kulveit has joined the fast-growth side, and Samuel Albanie keeps increasing his existing stake.
- Earlier, the pot was $425k; Google DeepMind shows genuine internal disagreement: Alex Olegimas joined the bet while his colleague Samuel Albanie bets the other way — frontier lab researchers themselves are split on AI timelines.
More from AGI Musings
- Economist Joshua Gans Responds to Fields Medalists' Letter on AI Upending Math — joshgans · 2026-09-12
- Anthropic's Head of Product says the 'alignment' half of the PM job no longer exists — cen6wkf · 2026-09-12
- Mathematician's complaint isn't that AI beat him, it's brute-force 'slop' proofs as marketing — hugobowne · 2026-09-12
- NYT: AI Agents Going Rogue Exposes Unsolved Problems in Safeguards and Alignment — dylfreed · 2026-09-12
- From 'Not Real Art' to 'Not Real Math': How AI Skepticism Shifted in Three Years — _AustinCalvert_ · 2026-09-12
- Robert Wiblin: No Regulator Can Verify AI Labs' Training Pipelines Aren't Backdoored — connoraxiotes · 2026-09-12