Survey of 2,778 AI Researchers Puts 50% HLMI Odds at 2047, 13 Years Earlier
anpaure · x · 2026-09-12
Cited in the thread: 'Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI' (JAIR, Oct 2025). In Oct 2023, 2,778 researchers published in top AI venues predicted milestones including a payment-processing site and LLM fine-tuning having ≥50% odds by 2028. Unaided machines outperforming humans at all tasks: 10% by 2027 and 50% by 2047 — 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey. Full occupation automation: 10% by 2037, 50% by 2116. 68% saw good outcomes as more likely, with substantial long-term uncertainty. The poster cites it to rebut the claim that only under-30s worry about AGI risk.
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