Coatue data: $100B companies have 31% odds of a 10x, as AI-driven IPO wave looms
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-09-12
Thomas Laffont, co-founder of Coatue Management ($70B AUM), shared odds of startup scaling on the All-In Podcast: a $1B unicorn has roughly an 8% chance of reaching $10B; a $10B decacorn an 8-13% chance of reaching $100B; while a $100B company has a 31% chance of having achieved a 10x, i.e. a $1T valuation.
He argues a massive AI-driven IPO wave is coming, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX each potentially crossing $1T valuations. Value creation is also accelerating: going from $500B to $1T market cap used to take years, but three companies did it in the same year, two of them within weeks.
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