Polymarket odds give China just 9% chance of topping Chatbot Arena by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-12
Polymarket's market on whether a Chinese company will hold the #1 model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by Dec 31, 2026 trades at just 9% (on $237K volume); ranking in the top 3 is priced at 26%.
This follows Trump's claim that the US leads China in AI by a full year. Resolution is based on the Text Arena overall leaderboard with style control off, with candidates including Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
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