Ethan Mollick: METR long-horizon benchmark effectively saturated as agents hit 18-week tasks
emollick · x · 2026-09-12
Ethan Mollick notes the METR long-horizon benchmark is effectively saturated — Epoch found pre-Fable agents can already do 18 weeks of human-equivalent work. With Frontier Math, ARC-AGI and even Millennium Prize problems saturating, he asks the community for the best quantitative graph still capturing AI's exponential progress curve — effectively a search for the next measuring stick after benchmarks saturate faster than expected.
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