Safety researcher puts ~50% odds on superintelligence wiping out humanity within a decade
inductionheads · x · 2026-09-11
AI safety researcher Geoffrey Irving estimates a 50% chance humanity goes extinct due to superintelligence, driven mostly by actions in the next few to 10 years. He doesn't expect his estimate to move below 10% or above 90% before the outcome resolves, arguing we must act despite uncertainty. Quoting him, writer NathanJRobinson questions the doomsday framing for lacking any mechanism — beyond "the AI will just be really smart and think of something."
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