Polymarket puts 24% odds on US enacting an AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-11
- Polymarket prices "US enacts an AI safety bill before 2027" at 24%, with $102K in volume.
- Resolution requires a federal law containing at least one of: bans on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions (data access or parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements.
- Context: bipartisan Senate momentum exists, with Sens. Klobuchar, Cruz, and Majority Leader Thune reportedly drafting a measure focused on catastrophic risks like bio and nuclear threats. Cruz argued the US cannot afford to slow AI down, saying he'd rather see "American killer robots and not Chinese killer robots."
Related event: Polymarket Odds on US Federal AI Safety Bill Jump Sharply in Two Days(8 posts)→
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