Ben Moll challenges AI double-digit growth forecasts: who prices in AI cyber incidents hitting GDP?
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-10
In a new essay with Alex Olegimas, economist Ben Moll argues forecasts of 15–100% annual GDP growth from AI in the 2030s get the timeline wrong, even while agreeing the AI capability explosion is real. He highlights a commonly ignored assumption: "no AI-driven cyber incidents destroying economic value" — e.g., a massive HuggingFace-style hack of critical infrastructure like power grids — and calls for serious quantitative work on how such scenarios would shave GDP.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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