Ex-UK AI Safety Institute chief scientist puts ~50% odds on extinction from superintelligence
zetalyrae · x · 2026-09-10
Geoffrey Irving, former Chief Scientist at the UK AI Security Institute and previously at Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Google Brain, estimates a 50% chance of everyone dying as a result of superintelligence, mostly from actions in the next few to 10 years. He doesn't expect his estimate to move below 10% or above 90% before the outcome is decided, arguing we must act despite uncertainty.
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