Geoffrey Irving puts 50% odds on superintelligence killing everyone, citing deep model uncertainty
geoffreyirving · x · 2026-09-10
Geoffrey Irving says he believes there is a 50% chance humanity dies as a result of superintelligence, mostly due to actions taken in the next few to 10 years.
- Explaining the number, he says model uncertainty remains huge: years ago he converged on a 10-90% range but didn't feel calibrated even within it, so the honest move was to take the mean.
- He stresses we must act despite uncertainty and expects the estimate won't tighten below 10% or above 90% before we either make it through or we don't.
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