Economists Ben Moll and Alex Imas: double-digit AI growth is extremely unlikely, 4-5% is the realistic baseline
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-10
Economists Ben Moll and Alex Imas published an essay pushing back on double-digit growth predictions from AI insiders like Dario Amodei (10-15%/year) and Leopold Aschenbrenner (30%/year).
- Stance: They are extremely bullish on AI capability itself, but argue a capabilities explosion won't translate into double-digit GDP growth within 10-15 years.
- Core argument: AI affects GDP growth with "long and variable lags" (echoing Milton Friedman), because the economic forces generating GDP growth are sometimes counterintuitive.
- Conclusion: growth above 10% is extremely unlikely near-term; a reasonable baseline is 4-5% — already massive. Even Anthropic's own economic model only reaches double digits in its "extreme" scenario.
- The viral corollary: Erik Torenberg's summary — sectors AI accelerates shrink relative to the rest of the economy; "in the limit, the economy is 100% the DMV." Alex Imas adds: what gets automated becomes cheap; what doesn't becomes expensive.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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