Cambridge prof David Krueger puts AI catastrophe risk above 50%, says everyone is understating it
KatjaGrace · x · 2026-09-10
Cambridge professor David Krueger says "everyone is still understating the risk," putting his personal estimate of AI catastrophe probability above 50%, with his main hope being that we stop building more powerful AI ASAP. He relays a friend at an AI company estimating a 10% chance within the next 4 months absent serious governance intervention.
Quoter KatjaGrace adds that "whole digit % in the coming year" sounds closer to what people actually believe, arguing the message gets chronically understated at every step of relaying.
More from AGI Musings
- Ex-DeepMind researcher: many colleagues truly believe AI could kill everyone — Dan_Jeffries1 · 2026-09-10
- iamtrask: alignment is a data problem, and humanity is '100% gonna survive and thrive' — iamtrask · 2026-09-10
- Hank Yang: AI Excels at Well-Defined Problems, So the Real Skill Is Defining New Ones — hankyang94 · 2026-09-10
- dlwh: every eval is broken, yet blindly hillclimbing on them drove stunning AI progress — dlwh · 2026-09-10
- AI safety debate: if you believe your P(doom), why aren't you fighting? — MichaelAlleged · 2026-09-10
- Blogger Claims OpenAI Could Lure Scientists With Free Compute to Mine Their Research Ideas — ns123abc · 2026-09-10