Economist Ben Moll: AI won't deliver double-digit GDP growth anytime soon
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-10
In a new essay, economist Ben Moll takes on predictions from Dario Amodei (10-15% annual growth), Leopold Aschenbrenner (30%+) and others that AI will soon drive double-digit GDP growth.
Key points:
- The authors are extremely bullish on AI and believe the capabilities explosion is already happening — their quarrel is only with the growth timeline.
- Nothing in growth models mathematically prevents explosive AI-driven growth, but the trajectory relies on a chain of assumptions unlikely to all hold.
- One counterintuitive mechanism: automated sectors become cheaper and thus a smaller share of the economy, dampening aggregate growth gains.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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